Conflicting statements from various refiners, some upgraded ones are doing away with bitumen production and the some are going into Fuel Oil Production. However some are changing back to High density ( Venezuealan ..similar to Angolan crude) to get more bitumen.
The world demand especially the developing world needs lot of bitumen. China's current consumption may be lower after they commission the new refineries under development and Korean refiners, the major supplier to China market are looking for alternatives..
Here are the risk factors listed in Shell's semi-annual report..
There are a number of factors that could affect the future operations of Royal Dutch Shell and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements included in this document, including (without limitation):
(a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas;
(b) changes in demand for the Group's products;
(c) currency fluctuations;
(d) drilling and production results;
(e) reserve estimates;
(f) loss of market share and industry competition;
(g) environmental and physical risks;
(h) risks associated with the identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and targets, and successful negotiation and completion of such transactions;
(i) the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject to international sanctions;
(j) legislative, fiscal and regulatory developments including potential litigation and regulatory effects arising from recategorisation of reserves;
(k) economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions;
(l) political risks, including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities, delays or advancements in the approval of projects and delays in the reimbursement for shared costs; and (m) changes in trading conditions.
Hope the supplies are met with the lower crude oil price to meet the construction schedules projected by various developing countries in the near future.
Shell Statistics Soruce- http://www.foxbusiness.com/